Addressing the logistical challenges of lunar colony construction, this study proposes a multi-module integrated decision support framework. First, a capacity-schedule-cost model is constructed to optimize the allocation ratio between space elevators and rockets, identifying an “elevator-dominant with rockets as supplementation” strategy as the most costeffective approach. Second, a Markov reliability model is introduced to quantify effective capacity losses under non-ideal operating conditions, proving that system availability is a high-leverage parameter for long-term scheduling. Additionally, the research establishes a water demand and recycling dynamics model, demonstrating that improving recycling efficiency is the core strategy for reducing long-term logistics burdens. Finally, a full-life-cycle environmental assessment is integrated, and sensitivity analyses identify key parameters influencing planning quality. This framework provides rigorous mathematical tools and management rules for the robust planning of large-scale extraterrestrial logistics systems.

heterogeneous transport capacity scheduling, markov reliability model, space logistics, lunar base construction