Fatigue Life Prediction and Reliability Evaluation Model of Ship Structure

Zhenchao Fu
Article
2026 / Volume 9 / Pages 2170‐2202
Published 25 April 2026

Abstract

As a key marine equipment, ships are subjected to cyclic loads such as waves, wind and their own vibration in complex marine environments for a long time. Especially with the widespread use of high-strength industrial textiles and fiberreinforced composites in modern ship hulls and mooring systems, the fatigue characteristics of these materials have become a crucial factor in overall structural reliability. This study aims to construct a comprehensive Evaluation Framework for predicting the fatigue life of ship structures and reliability evaluation to meet the safety challenges under complex working conditions. Based on the method of combining theoretical analysis and experimental verification, based on the fatigue failure mechanism and material property analysis, a multi-factor prediction model integrating stress level, material properties, geometric parameters and environmental factors is established, and the accuracy of the model is optimized by combining deterministic and stochastic analysis, while considering the unique fatigue degradation laws of fiber-reinforced components, and the model verification is completed through electro-hydraulic servo fatigue test, finite element numerical simulation and Monte Carlo simulation. The results show that the prediction accuracy of the proposed model is significantly better than that of the traditional method, with the average absolute percentage error (MAPE) as low as 8.2%, and can effectively quantify the probability and risk level of structural failure. The research results provide a scientific basis for the optimal design of ship structures and the formulation of preventive maintenance strategies.

Keywords

industrial textiles, ship structure, fatigue life, reliability evaluation, cyclic load